Telecommunications in a changing Technological Environment
The text of an address
by Mickey Matthew, Telecommunications Officer, to Graduating Students of the Microcom
Computer Training Center, March 24,
1990.
(Was this Prophecy!
or was it just a clear Vision of the Future....which is today?)
There are many of us who have always had
throughout the years, a fascination for new developments in
technology. Within this century, we have seen the evolution of a very
primitive experimental motor-car develop into modern styled vehicles. We've seen the
experimental flying machines of the Wright Brothers evolve into aero planes, jumbo-jets and space ships.
In the late fifty's when I first entered the
public service, adding and calculating machines that were cranked by hand to give you the
results, were the order of the day. At that time, the new noisy electrically
driven adding machines were state-of-the-art and were considered to be the ultimate by
many users. There are many of us, who at the time had fantasized, and later
day-dreamed about the time when calculators would become small enough to be carried around
in your brief-case or even your pocket. Today (March 1990), it is not
unusual to see calculators that are slightly larger than a postage stamp or even combined
with the face of a watch.
The standard mechanical typewriter is right now
evolving into an electronic computer based device. This is something many
of us are taking for granted, but to those of us who have seen the hand-cranked
calculating machines develop into sophisticated electronic computers; those of us who
have seen hand-cranked spring driven gramophones evolve into sophisticated
tape and cassette recorders, are very sensitive to these changes that are taking
place...changes that are taking place very rapidly. Trying to predict where even new
developments will take us 10 years from now, boggles the mind, because many of the
developments of the coming decade are presently beyond our comprehension.
EVOLUTION IS A NATURAL PROCESS
Mankind has advanced...progressed more rapidly within the past two
hundred years than all the years preceding
that period combined. What new devices, what new surprises scientists, technologists
and experimenters hold in store for us to make life easier in the home and the workplace,
leading up to the year 2000, we cannot really be sure.
There is one thing we can be sure of however,
and that is...the computer is going to have a very significant role to play in the years
ahead, in trade, industry & commerce; in the offices, manufacturing, all aspects
of tourism, agriculture, education; in fact, in all fields of endeavour. That is
why those of us who dream and sometimes fantasize about the world of the future,
find it pleasingly gratifying to be associated with an event
such as this; this graduating ceremony in which there is a clear indication, that our
people are being prepared to adapt to these changes being brought about by new
developments in technology.
In this rapidly changing
technological environment, the challenges we face today are; how do we keep pace
with these changes? How can we prevent the future from overtaking us? In other
words, how can we prevent ourselves from being left so far behind, that we appear to be
standing still or worse yet, living in the past.
How do we, the people of Antigua and Barbuda prepare ourselves to
cope with these changes. in technology. The obvious answer is training. Leaning to acquire new skills that will prepare us to be
more independent, more self reliant,
more self-sufficient as we approach the dawn of a new era, as we move into the twenty-first century. The
twenty-first century holds a lot in store for developing countries. That is not a prophecy, nor is a
prediction, it is a statement of fact.
EVOLVING FROM THE
STONE AGE, THROUGH THE AGRICULTURAL ERA, THE INDUSTRIAL ERA OF THE LATTER PART OF THE 18TH CENTURY,
THROUGH TO THE INFORMATION ERA OF THE 1990'S
From the beginning of time, man has always had the will to develop tools that would make
his day to day living easier, he
fashioned tools out of sticks and stones, primarily for hunting, so that he could feed himself. We still refer
to that period in the history of mankind as the Stone Age.
As the centuries rolled by, man recognized that the
wild fruits and vegetables which formed a part of his diet, could be planted and grown at will. He recognized too,
that many of the animals he had chased and hunted, could be caught, fenced in and bred so
that he did not have to hunt anymore. This transition from the stone age to the
agricultural era had taken centuries, but man has always had the will to acquire skills,
develop new methods to be more productive, in his quest for a better way of life.
Then came the mechanical devices and machines. -This was a brand new
ball-game. We still refer to this period as the period of the 'Industrial Revolution'. This change from the use of
manual methods of manufacturing to mechanical methods began in England round about the
year 1750 and later spread to other countries. This era was referred as a
"Revolution", because it brought about vast changes in the way people worked and
lived. It created an industrialized society---one in which large-scale mechanized
manufacturing, replaced farming as a main source of jobs. An era in which people no
longer grew their own food and made the products they used at home, but worked for wages
so that they could buy the food they ate and other necessities.
From
the beginning of time, technological advancements never stood still. It is a never ending
process. Nor is the industrial era the final one. the result of developments
which began in the year 1800 and beyond have put us now ---- in our lifetime, at the
crossroads between the industrial age and the next era.
The
calculating machine, invented in 1822, electromagnets, electric generators, the telegraph, storage batteries, the typewriter, the telephone,
the phonograph, the microphone, the electric light bulb, the transformer and wireless
systems, were all invented between 1822 and 1899 (a mere 77 year period). FM
Radio did not come until 1939 and a primitive electro-mechanical computer was invented
less than 50 years ago (at that time), in 1943. The basic,
electronic digital computer was developed three years later in -1946. Those first digital
computers were great big monstrous devices using vacuum tubes. The transistor which would
lead to the manufacture of smaller devices. was not invented until two years after the
digital computer, in 1948.
The
invention and development of those and other related devices have all contributed to the
creation of a new type of
industry ----- I N F O R M A T I C S ----- a new telecommunications industry pertaining to
the movement of information.
We are now moving into the Information-Era. Where we are now
at the beginning of the Information-Era, is where the world was in 1750 at the
beginning of the industrial revolution.
THE VISION OF THE FUTURE
IN 1990 IS A FACT OF LIFE TODAY
THE NEXT PORTION OF THE ADDRESS REFLECTS THE VOICE OF PROPHECY ESPECIALLY AS IT RELATES TO
THE LOSS OF TELEPHONE SYSTEMS BY CARICOM MEMBER STATES TO A MONOPOLY TELECOM SERVICE
PROVIDER, THUS RETARDING THEIR POTENTIAL FOR RAPID ECONOMIC GROWTH FROM THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE NEW TELECOM SERVICES IN A FREE MARKET ENVIRONMENT.
THE VISION OF THE FUTURE EXPRESSED IN THIS ADDRESS LED TO A CAMPAIGN FOR US IN
ANTIGUA AND BARBUDA TO RETAIN OUR NATIONAL TELEPHONE SYSTEM IN THE INTEREST OF THE FUTURE
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND DEVELOPMENT OF OUR TWIN ISLAND STATE, AND THE EVENTUAL CREATION OF
THOUSANDS OF NEW JOBS, AND THE EARNING POTENTIAL OF OUR PEOPLE.
THE PROPHECY
Computer and telephone
systems will be combined with other telecommunication systems to provide developing
countries with thousands of new job opportunities, and the foundation for stimulating
great economic growth, generating great wealth from our basic natural resources,
our people and our telecommunications.
The basic telephone
infrastructure is the pivot on which all this economic growth will revolve. This is why
worldwide, providers of telecommunication services from the industrialized countries are
desperately and
frantically devising all sorts of schemes and strategies to relieve un-suspecting
developing countries of their national telephone systems.
IT WAS NOT ENOUGH JUST TO SAY TO THE
GRADUANDS THAT THEY COULD EARN A LIVING IN THE FUTURE FROM PROVIDING TELECOMMUNICATION
SERVICES, THE ADDRESS WAS CONCLUDED BY QUOTING A WELL KNOWN EXPERT IN THE FIELD AT THAT
TIME, WHOSE PREDICTIONS I FELT WOULD HAVE BEEN MORE READILY ACCEPTED THAN MINE AS HE
EXPLAINED HOW ANY ENTERPRISING PERSON COULD PROVIDE TELECOM SERVICES WITH
VERY NEGLIGIBLE FINANCIAL RESOURCES.
(In every
society, every man, woman and child has a fundamental constitutional right to a country's
natural resources, that is why access must be granted to our beaches. It is also a
fundamental constitutional right for members of a society or citizens of a state, to be
able to earn a living by having unrestricted access for the use of these natural
resources).
CONCLUSION OF THE ADDRESS
All computer-literate persons will have an opportunity to set up his own little business
with just a PC and a Modem....for those of you who may not be able to perceive this vision
of the future, let me support my statements by quoting at least one authority; a US
publication of just two months ago (January, 1990), DVORAK'S (pronounced DE-VO-JACS) Guide
to PC Telecommunications, written by John Dvorak and Nick Anis, with foreword by Peter
Norton, a well known name in the computer world, form page eleven (11), paragraphs two (2)
and four (4), I quote:
"For the entrepreneur, PC
Telecommunications is a new way to make money, thousands of individuals can make a good
living learning how to navigate complex on-line services to extract information for
business. PC Technology allows individuals to inexpensively set up shop and publish
information electronically for a profit. In this way you can provide a database
service and charge others for access to your information. How can you compete with
giant database enterprises? Quite easily. You simply specialize in a narrow field of
knowledge."
T his is where recent developments in technology is taking us. That is the reason why our telecommunications must be in the
hands of our people. Every man, woman and enterprising young person must have the right
and the opportunity to generate an income from his computer and our
telecommunications.
Let us therefore commit ourselves to
playing our part, as we prepare to meet the challenges of the coming decade, the year
2000, with the hope that we will be in a position to make our telecommunications work for
us, earn for us, and not find ourselves forced to purchase time, for very handsome fees
and other charges, from some overseas operator, for the use of OUR OWN TELECOMMUNICATION
SERVICES.
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